Cast by brixbounty
Need @purp to help me get up to speed on the TX race.
3 replies
Not really if you break it down by primaries voted in, its a 25 blue swing which is right in line with national average, and I would almost bet the non midterm voter is breaking for talarico too
The big thing is, texas doesn't release party id for early vote. All texas early election analysis is either what this account does, just copy paste 2024 presidential results to get the R/D split or the other way is they release what primary voter voted in last 3 years, by this metric its a current plus ten d swing state wide( with 27% of vote being voters who voted in neither primary in last 3 years, which probally breaks heavy talarico)
The interesting thing on this, is its a plus 25 blue swing, which is right in line with the national average
The real interesting story though, is how the GOP gerrymander could fail, because its primarily based on if Hispanic vote held 2024 levels, and every poll says no, Republicans could lose what where safe seats in both national and state house
